Me he pasado todo el día discutiendo sobre sobreoptimización, pero creo que la verdadera discusión era sobre predicción.
Soy de la opinión de tener al menos 15 años de IS y 1 o 2 de OS que nos sirve de test.
En estos dos ejemplos que posteo el IS va hasta el año 2017, y 2018 y 2019 serían OS o test del modelo. Creo que el primer modelo es capaz de predecir, pero no el segundo. Es claro que el segundo no predice.
Ejemplo 1
Los ratios de Sharpe del modelo son :
In Sample:
sharpe ratio ==D== 1.62272962599 sharpe ratio ==M== 1.76258857063 sharpe ratio ==A== 1.7919539264
Out Sample:
sharpe ratio ==D== 1.50359340719 sharpe ratio ==M== 1.62977168983 sharpe ratio ==A== 1.43926384499
Los resultados mensuales son:
Month | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | All |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Year | |||||||||||||
2000 | NaN | NaN | NaN | NaN | NaN | NaN | NaN | NaN | NaN | 0.000 | -0.029 | 0.039 | 0.010 |
2001 | 0.107 | 0.042 | 0.006 | 0.064 | -0.033 | 0.042 | 0.081 | 0.023 | 0.046 | 0.009 | 0.087 | 0.083 | 0.556 |
2002 | 0.020 | 0.020 | 0.005 | 0.085 | 0.024 | -0.011 | -0.113 | 0.071 | -0.015 | 0.050 | 0.134 | 0.053 | 0.323 |
2003 | 0.044 | 0.195 | 0.142 | -0.045 | -0.069 | -0.051 | 0.259 | -0.018 | -0.057 | 0.067 | 0.054 | -0.173 | 0.348 |
2004 | -0.055 | -0.103 | 0.288 | 0.057 | 0.074 | 0.060 | 0.010 | -0.049 | 0.113 | -0.031 | -0.049 | 0.034 | 0.350 |
2005 | 0.141 | -0.031 | 0.180 | 0.087 | 0.036 | -0.022 | 0.031 | 0.081 | 0.161 | 0.033 | 0.024 | 0.068 | 0.790 |
2006 | -0.005 | 0.119 | -0.062 | 0.019 | -0.062 | 0.026 | 0.038 | -0.003 | 0.022 | 0.079 | 0.082 | 0.032 | 0.286 |
2007 | 0.026 | -0.009 | -0.021 | 0.027 | 0.021 | 0.039 | 0.102 | 0.168 | 0.091 | -0.035 | 0.066 | -0.003 | 0.471 |
2008 | 0.079 | 0.018 | 0.067 | -0.002 | 0.014 | 0.047 | 0.116 | -0.000 | 0.172 | -0.015 | -0.028 | -0.021 | 0.446 |
2009 | 0.151 | -0.021 | 0.072 | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.157 | 0.165 | 0.167 | 0.010 | 0.222 | 0.923 |
2010 | 0.085 | -0.060 | 0.056 | -0.014 | -0.067 | 0.066 | -0.011 | 0.102 | -0.026 | -0.016 | 0.164 | -0.004 | 0.274 |
2011 | 0.078 | -0.055 | 0.059 | 0.027 | 0.179 | -0.031 | 0.013 | 0.049 | 0.118 | -0.044 | 0.184 | -0.062 | 0.513 |
2012 | 0.000 | 0.013 | 0.054 | 0.050 | 0.071 | 0.095 | 0.009 | 0.069 | 0.077 | 0.000 | 0.006 | 0.022 | 0.466 |
2013 | -0.043 | 0.135 | -0.002 | 0.016 | 0.108 | 0.163 | 0.226 | -0.059 | -0.068 | 0.049 | 0.021 | 0.090 | 0.635 |
2014 | 0.002 | 0.089 | -0.027 | 0.026 | 0.039 | 0.042 | 0.004 | 0.025 | 0.074 | -0.002 | -0.018 | 0.012 | 0.266 |
2015 | -0.030 | 0.080 | -0.080 | 0.013 | 0.106 | -0.004 | 0.056 | -0.016 | -0.018 | -0.000 | -0.073 | -0.028 | 0.007 |
2016 | -0.078 | 0.091 | 0.142 | 0.047 | 0.082 | 0.264 | 0.294 | -0.026 | -0.007 | 0.096 | 0.081 | 0.000 | 0.987 |
2017 | 0.021 | -0.033 | -0.025 | 0.065 | -0.020 | 0.097 | -0.002 | 0.042 | 0.101 | 0.107 | -0.051 | 0.041 | 0.342 |
2018 | -0.064 | 0.162 | -0.071 | 0.094 | 0.023 | 0.006 | 0.000 | 0.001 | 0.027 | -0.030 | -0.055 | 0.022 | 0.115 |
2019 | 0.012 | -0.026 | 0.067 | -0.041 | -0.090 | NaN | NaN | NaN | NaN | NaN | NaN | NaN | -0.079 |
All | 0.491 | 0.625 | 0.850 | 0.574 | 0.436 | 0.827 | 1.112 | 0.617 | 0.977 | 0.482 | 0.610 | 0.427 | 8.029 |
Ejemplo 2
Los ratios sharpe del modelo son:
In Sample:
sharpe ratio ==D== 1.5619223546
sharpe ratio ==M== 1.7229315208
sharpe ratio ==A== 1.5118309887
sharpe ratio ==D== 1.37709217216
sharpe ratio ==M== 1.47681512842
sharpe ratio ==A== 1.1702669541
Y los resultados mensuales los siguientes:
Month | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | All |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Year | |||||||||||||
2000 | NaN | NaN | NaN | NaN | NaN | NaN | NaN | NaN | NaN | 0.011 | 0.031 | -0.009 | 0.033 |
2001 | 0.064 | -0.009 | -0.022 | 0.000 | -0.080 | 0.052 | 0.058 | 0.102 | 0.060 | 0.006 | 0.078 | 0.126 | 0.435 |
2002 | -0.135 | 0.007 | 0.033 | 0.114 | -0.009 | 0.244 | -0.093 | 0.135 | -0.026 | 0.053 | 0.109 | -0.010 | 0.422 |
2003 | 0.009 | 0.150 | 0.101 | 0.003 | 0.000 | -0.017 | 0.058 | 0.026 | 0.000 | -0.006 | -0.051 | -0.111 | 0.161 |
2004 | 0.051 | -0.038 | 0.114 | 0.101 | -0.062 | 0.017 | 0.029 | 0.031 | -0.024 | 0.054 | 0.000 | 0.058 | 0.331 |
2005 | 0.132 | 0.006 | 0.051 | -0.032 | 0.058 | -0.016 | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.048 | 0.000 | 0.003 | 0.036 | 0.286 |
2006 | 0.002 | 0.011 | -0.043 | 0.228 | 0.016 | 0.165 | -0.040 | -0.054 | 0.129 | -0.017 | -0.027 | 0.036 | 0.406 |
2007 | 0.113 | 0.001 | -0.002 | 0.000 | -0.008 | 0.057 | 0.164 | 0.117 | -0.011 | 0.000 | 0.084 | 0.028 | 0.543 |
2008 | 0.000 | 0.017 | 0.015 | 0.010 | 0.037 | 0.046 | -0.028 | -0.070 | 0.034 | 0.007 | -0.027 | 0.000 | 0.042 |
2009 | 0.000 | 0.000 | -0.024 | 0.091 | 0.042 | 0.064 | 0.101 | 0.065 | 0.214 | 0.175 | 0.010 | 0.056 | 0.794 |
2010 | 0.073 | 0.002 | 0.000 | -0.000 | 0.078 | 0.000 | -0.043 | 0.001 | 0.034 | -0.065 | 0.084 | 0.103 | 0.267 |
2011 | 0.072 | 0.005 | -0.046 | 0.054 | 0.203 | 0.061 | 0.039 | -0.004 | 0.026 | 0.000 | 0.045 | -0.034 | 0.423 |
2012 | 0.066 | 0.045 | -0.004 | 0.067 | -0.067 | 0.000 | 0.009 | 0.081 | 0.076 | 0.017 | -0.035 | 0.079 | 0.335 |
2013 | -0.021 | -0.005 | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.043 | 0.065 | -0.030 | 0.003 | 0.174 | 0.039 | 0.076 | -0.002 | 0.342 |
2014 | 0.054 | 0.118 | 0.057 | 0.076 | -0.026 | 0.104 | -0.064 | -0.008 | 0.002 | 0.024 | 0.000 | 0.001 | 0.338 |
2015 | -0.005 | 0.000 | 0.044 | 0.000 | -0.089 | 0.118 | 0.038 | -0.058 | 0.064 | 0.049 | -0.092 | -0.051 | 0.016 |
2016 | 0.012 | 0.071 | -0.017 | -0.023 | -0.027 | 0.069 | 0.120 | 0.000 | 0.005 | 0.014 | 0.000 | -0.020 | 0.203 |
2017 | -0.030 | 0.018 | 0.101 | 0.106 | 0.024 | 0.060 | 0.041 | 0.131 | 0.166 | 0.118 | 0.084 | 0.043 | 0.863 |
2018 | 0.004 | 0.227 | -0.059 | 0.020 | -0.068 | -0.021 | -0.061 | -0.069 | 0.007 | -0.083 | 0.041 | 0.025 | -0.038 |
2019 | 0.049 | -0.008 | -0.059 | 0.023 | -0.103 | NaN | NaN | NaN | NaN | NaN | NaN | NaN | -0.098 |
All | 0.510 | 0.618 | 0.241 | 0.841 | -0.036 | 1.070 | 0.297 | 0.430 | 0.978 | 0.394 | 0.413 | 0.352 | 6.107 |
Es cierto que ambos están perjuducados por este mal mes de Mayo.
El subyacente es la libra-dolar.
Nos vemos dentro de poco
@tiotino
0 Comentarios